DJIA passes 10000 but falls after earnings fail to meet expectations

The DJIA rose above 10000 on October 14, stayed there for a day, and promptly dipped below the psychological threshold after IBM, Bank of America and GE's third quarter earnings disappointed investors. Still, the DJIA has risen 53% since hitting it's low of 6547 on March 9 and is up 14% this year. The run up, driven by better than expected earnings over the last two quarters, is hardly a resounding statement about the health of these business or the economy overall. The truth is that the earnings bar was set so low that it was virtually impossible for companies not to beat it. And while corporate profits are up, the improvement is primarily due to short term cost cutting programs and not from top line growth. For companies to continue to beat market estimates, they must find a way to increase sales, which is heavily dependent on consumer sentiment.

Many consumers are feeling more optimistic as the increase in the stock market has taken some of the sting out of the huge losses in their IRA's, 401k's and other personal investments. However, a continued acceleration in the stock market and a rebound in the economy is unlikely without an improvement in retail sales. Consumers still feeling the pinch in their wallets due to reductions in salaries and layoffs are continuing to look for ways to make due with less. With oil hitting $78 per barrel, a surge of 9% for the week, many consumers are having to cut back even further to offset the increased costs to operate their vehicles and heat their homes as we head into the winter months.

To make matters worse, many homeowners who could have saved hundreds of dollars per month by refinancing their mortgages or buying new homes - to take advantage of historically low interest rates – have been unable to do so because of low appraisal values. Recent changes in the real estate appraisal laws under the Home Value Code of Conduct instituted May 1, 2009, now require brokers to use an independent third party to select an appraiser. These appraisers who no longer have a connection to the mortgage brokers are making conservative appraisals to protect their jobs. Homeowners who believed they had plenty of equity are finding that their homes have been appraised at insufficient values to qualify for the loan. Instead of freeing up their cash, which could help to stimulate the fragile
economy, homeowners are forced to live with the status quo. Those who hold adjustable rate
mortgages face an increase in costs as impending inflation means a certain rise in interest rates further exacerbating the problem.

All this adds up to a rocky road for the economy as we head into the holiday season.

Pete Canalichio
October 17, 2009

World Bank Head Sees Dollar’s Role Diminishing

Robert Zoellick, President of the World Bank, believes America's days as an unchallenged superpower are numbered and the US dollar will lose favor to the euro and the Chinese renminbi (NY Times, September 28, 2009). Whatever Mr. Zoellick's motivation in making such a statement, the implications if he is correct could be staggering for the United States.

As the world's main reserve currency, the US dollar trades or figures in transactions many billions of times per day. Governments, successful businesses and wealthy individuals keep excess cash in dollars because these can easily be converted into euros, renminbi, rupees and rubles. The dollar's preferred status enables the US Treasury to issue dollar denominated treasury bonds, which are gobbled up by the Chinese, Germans and Japanese – countries that run a significant trade surplus. This is very desirable for the US as it finds itself needing to borrow more and more money to offset its ever-growing debt. With the Obama administration’s response to the current economic downturn, US debt levels are likely to grow even larger. If the world's creditor nations ever choose to reduce their holdings of US dollars or bonds, Mr. Zoellick's prediction could come to fruition.

While the euro has virtually eliminated the challenges of currency conversion, and has simplified internation commerce among the EU's member nations, it still does not offer a riskless alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency. Anti-dollar proponents may argue that the euro clearly has helped to strengthen European economies and to raise the standard of living throughout the continent. However, the euro only gained legal tender status in 2002, and is yet to be tested over significant periods, or in a variety of economic crisis situations. For these reasons, the euro is not a strong candidate to supplant the US dollar.

The argument against the Renminbi becoming the world’s reserve currency is even stronger. Before the renminbi can assume a greater role among the world's currencies, the Chinese government would have to allow it to fluctuate freely on the world market. But we know that if the Chinese government were ever willing to allow the renminbi to trade freely, it would immediately strengthen vis-à-vis other world currencies, thus severely impacting the strong emphasis on exports that dominates Chinese economic policy. With a stronger renminbi, Chinese goods and services would become more expensive in world markets thus reducing exports and slowing an already fragile Chinese economy. Therefore, before China can seriously consider untethering its currency, it must find a way to increase domestic consumption. This is not something that is likely to happen in the short or even mid-term.

In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell tells us about a magic moment when an idea, trend or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire. In the hands of Connectors, Mavens and Salesmen, social epidemics can suddenly tip. According to Gladwell, Connectors are people with a special gift for bringing the world together. Mavens have the knowledge and the social skills to start word-of-mouth epidemics, and Salesmen have an uncanny ability to persuade others with subtle and seemingly effortless connectivity. So, the bigger question is not whether creditor nations will choose to reduce their holdings in US dollars in favor of the euro or renminbi, but rather is Robert Zoellick a Connector, Maven or Salesman? While Mr. Zoellick may possess capability in all three areas, his experience and expertise make him an excellent candidate to be a Maven.

If Mr. Zoellick's prognostication begins to take hold, other Connectors, Mavens and Salesmen may begin to agree and spread the message. Suddenly nations, businesses and individuals might choose to convert their local currency into euros or renminbis instead of US dollars. If this happens, America's days as an unchallenged economic superpower and the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency could well be numbered.

Three ways to expand the licensing value of your brand

To best help you understand how to expand the licensing value of your brand, let's take a step back and reflect on why companies choose to brand their products in the first place.

Companies brand their products to differentiate them from their competitors'. For example, most consumers have no problem differentiating a Coke from a Pepsi. By giving their products a brand, companies can begin a dialogue with their consumers about their products attributes. Over time, a consumer learns he/she can rely on the brand to deliver a consistent and expected value. One of the best examples of this is the Tiffany brand. Whether or not you have every bought from Tiffany, you know the brand is synonymous with the highest level of quality, service and reliability in jewelry. In fact, Tiffany has consistently delivered on this promise for almost two hundred years. For this reason, a Tiffany consumer will not buy from any other jeweler. Moreover, if ever asked where her jewelry was purchased, most women enthusiastically proclaim the Tiffany name.

When consumers are delighted by a particular brand experience, they begin to bond emotionally with the brand. They become brand loyalists and advocates – buying the brand more often and recommending it to others. This behavior serves to build the brand's reputation. In fact, consumers will often purchase a brand for the first time because of its reputation. The brand, therefore, adds value and certainty to an otherwise unknown product. The stronger a brand's reputation, the higher the value of the brand and the greater revenue it will drive for its owner. Prospective licensees want to license brands with the strongest reputation as these are the brands consumers demand and retailers prefer most. The stronger the brand, the higher likelihood that the licensed products will sell in and sell through.

Brand loyalists and advocates look to their preferred brands to deliver more and better products year after year. When this occurs, the brand gains “permission” to extend into categories that compliment its original offering. For example, the Mr. Clean brand, owned by P&G, was launched in 1963 as the first household liquid cleaner. Over time, the brand gained a strong reputation for its ability to clean effectively on a variety of surfaces. By delighting its consumers, Mr. Clean built significant brand loyalty and allegiance. When asked, consumers told the Mr. Clean brand team that they expected the Mr. Clean brand to offer additional products that simplified and enhanced the household cleaning experience. To satisfy these consumers, Mr. Clean developed a line of branded mops, brooms, and brushes. These products were met with enthusiasm and over time, consumers demanded even simpler and more effective ways to clean their homes. Today, the Mr. Clean brand can be found on an expansive list of products including scrubbing tub and shower pads, Magic Eraser cleaning pads, autodry car wash systems, multi-surface disinfecting wipes, rubber gloves and many other products. In fact, many of these Mr. Clean products are licensed. By owning a brand that can be extended into numerous categories, companies are able to attract and retain multiple prospective licensees. Using licensing to compliment internal resources actually accelerates a company's overall time to market.

The licensing industry exists today because brands cannot be created over night. In fact, it takes years and millions of dollars to create brands that are trusted and valued. Companies which own these brands are therefore naturally protective of them, and rightfully so. A brand's reputation can be easily tarnished when it fails to deliver on its brand promise. When this happens, consumer loyalty can erode quickly resulting in lost sales. As such, many brand owners would rather choose not to enter a category through licensing than risk damaging their brand. However, successful companies know that a well run licensing program can strengthen their brands and provide a substantial increase in profitability. Companies with successful licensing programs select best in class companies to license their brands.

Consider the Walt Disney Company. They furnish their licensees with clear guidelines on how the brand's standards are to implemented and provide a straight forward approvals process that enables the licensee to get their licensed products into market quickly and at a fair profit. These licensees, in turn, deliver world class innovative products that over deliver on the Disney brand promise thereby strengthening its brands. With a well run licensing program not only is the brand well protected, but licensees can quickly commercialize best in class branded products.

This not only strengthens the brand's overall reputation, but increases the licensing program's overall value.

In summary, three ways to expand the licensing value of your brand include:

• Strengthening your brand's reputation

• Increasing your brand's extendability

• Delivering a best-in-class licensing program

Pete Canalichio

Consumers Cut Back Further on Credit

Despite a rise in the Consumer Confidence index over the last several months, consumer borrowing in the United States fell a record $21.6 billion in July from the previous month (NY Times, September 8, 2009). This was the largest decrease in borrowing since 1943 despite the oversold and highly popular Cash-for-Clunkers program which began in July. The cutbacks which affected all areas of consumer borrowing – revolving and non-revolving (not including mortgages) – significantly exceeded analysts predictions of $4 billion. With this drop, the annual pace of change has gone from -4.2% in May to -7.4% in June to -10.4% in July.

Like businesses, families across America are continuing to get their personal balance sheets in order. Less and smarter debt means more security and personal freedom. Families want to feel confident that they can continue to stay in their homes and put food on the table. For the majority, this requires they spend within their means, reduce debt and finally begin to save. Wherever and whenever possible, families are making do with what they have. Credit cards and bank lines of credit which in the past were rationalized to take that family vacation or buy a new car because “we deserve it” are now seen as emergency funds for when things get worse.

For businesses which thrive on consumer spending this suggests a much slower albeit more sustainable recovery. As a result unemployment in the US will likely continue to drift higher over the next six months before it peaks suggesting a slow and perhaps erratic rate of decline over the next several years. In this environment, consumers will only buy when they feel they have to or when they see tremendous value. Businesses which desire to succeed in this market must determine:

• Where globally there exists demand which they can satisfy
• Which businesses and brands are thriving in this economy and more importantly why
• How they can deliver more value to consumers at a better price

Conventional methods and sacred cows must give way to new thinking. Companies must begin asking themselves provoking questions such as:

• Are there competitors who should also be our partners?
• Can we source or license our products instead of manufacturing them?
• Should we reinvent ourselves?

It is clear that consumers' buying habits have changed and their appetite for debt has decreased
dramatically, permanently changing the economic landscape. With it, businesses which desire to thrive must also make dramatic and permanent changes in the way they operate.

Pete Canalichio

President Sarkozy

French Bankers Accept Restrictions on Bonuses

In a ploy to strengthen his political capital, President Nicolas Sarkosy this past week convinced leaders of his country's major banks to cut proposed bonuses by 50% and to tie the payout of those bonuses to long-term performance. Sarkosy knows that the French proletariat have become angered at what they have deemed excessive compensation paid for on the backs of the working class. If this narrative sounds familiar, it should. Recall last year's bonus payouts and lavish outings made by Merrill Lynch (now owned by Bank of America), AIG and others which received billions of dollars in TARP funding. Now Mr. Sarkosy hopes to make hay on the world stage at the G-20 Summit scheduled next month in Pittsburgh.

At the heart of this debate are the issues that separate capitalism from socialism. Capitalists believe that private ownership and free enterprise provide the most efficient economic structure; socialism advocates ownership belongs to the community as a whole. With so many suffering at the demise of the financial system, it has become easy to lay blame on banks and bankers who have notoriously been the most highly compensated. Virtually no blame has been placed on the government whose policies set guidelines for reserve requirements or encouraged relaxed standards in lending. In this have versus have not scenario, world leaders with socialist tendencies have an audience of tens of millions eagerly waiting to hear their message.

The likelihood is that Sarkosy will be warmly received by the Obama administration during his visit in September and that the two will tag-team on ways to influence the amounts and methods to which banks compensate their employees. As changes in compensation policies begin to take effect bankers directly impacted will look for opportunities to regain their “lost” income resulting in a flight of talent from the US and France to countries where the laws are less imposing. The US, which has been a magnet for the world's most gifted and talented, will weaken over time if policy changes are allowed to reverse this polarity. To maintain its status as the world's financial epicenter, the US must ensure the virtues of capitalism go unimpeded. Instead of directing banker compensation, the government should concentrate on revising banking policy that reinforces a strong and sustainable banking structure.

Pete Canalichio
August 29, 2009

Fed extends consumer lending program through March

The Fed sent a strong signal on August 17th when they extended the Term-Asset-Backed-Loan-Facility (TALF) that the financial markets continue to be hampered by investors unwillingness to buy loans backed by student loans, auto loans and credit cards. Traditionally these type of loans were some of the safest and most liquid. With the fallout in the economy last September and the corresponding jump in defaults on credit cards and other asset backed loans, investors have shied away from these types of loans labeling them just too risky. Without a liquid market for asset back loans, consumers and small businesses cannot borrow the money they need. To offset the risk and spur investment, the Fed instituted TALF last December. The program which was intended to go from March through December 2009 has grown to over $36 billion and is now been extended through March 2010.

Until investors feel confident that market dynamics have been righted to the point that they can begin to accurately price debt instruments including asset backed loans, the financial crisis will persist. In the meantime, programs like TARP and TALF are artificially propping up the financial markets, but at what price? The Fed now holds $2 trillion dollars of debt in its efforts to drive the economy out of recession. This balance has more than doubled since last year causing some to question the Obama administration's economic policies and whether the United States might lose its AAA rating. A drop in rating would severely weaken the dollar and put a strain on the US government's ability to borrow money, especially if foreign governments lose their faith in America.

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For me personally, I am glad the US government has instituted TARP and TALF. For without these programs, hundreds of banks which are borrowing billions from the government every day would have failed bringing the financial markets to their knees. Instead of talking about “green shoots” we would be talking about the Great Depression of 2009. While we are far from out of the woods, we must begin to consider the consequence of the debt the government has accumulated and the inflation that will come when the economy finally rebounds. I hope Bernanke and his team stand ready again to take action.

Pete Canalichio
August 24, 2009

Retail sales fall 5.1% in July

More than a temporary setback

Andrea Chang's article in the LA Times last week entitled “Retail sales fall 5.1% in July despite back-to-school lures” exemplifies the mindset of today's US consumer. There is a “batten down the hatches” approach to this economic storm that has left most purchasing decisions being made on a case by case basis. Consumers are continuing to ask themselves “Do I really need this?” and then choosing not to buy. Most consumers have experienced a paradigm shift in the way they see the world. Precepts such as “my home will continue to increase in value” are no longer valid leaving the consumer wondering if any economic principles will stand the test of time. As a result, consumers are learning to live with less; some, in fact, have chosen to permanently simplify their lives as they prefer the reduced stress that comes with it.
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It's going to take a lot more than seasonal markdowns to entice today's consumer to start shopping again on a regular basis. Despite a 40% drop in the price of gasoline from its $4 per gallon peak in July 2008, consumers continue to purchase hybrid and other high mileage cards, if they choose to buy at all. There is an unspoken but pervasive fear amongst consumers that things may not improve for a while. “I may have a job today, but will I tomorrow?” or, “Will the housing market ever recover?” With unemployment approaching 10% and millions of homes going into foreclosure, retail sales will continue to languish. Consumers who make up two-thirds of the economy are not going to put their families' savings at risk unless they believe there is a fundamental change in our economic structure.

To get consumers shopping again, Americans are going to have to be convinced that the US economy has a long-term positive outlook. To get there, America needs to get through the financial and real estate crises that are paralyzing the nation. This will begin to eliminate the fear of deflation and entice consumers to hold onto their homes instead of leaving them in droves as they did this past year. Furthermore, unemployment rates need to stabilize and begin to decline. When America gets back to work it will also get back to buying more than the bare essentials. Finally, the US must embark on a well articulated energy policy that makes America less dependent on foreign energy and more independent from using its own plentiful energy resources. When these things are in place, not only will consumers feel better about shopping, they will have the resources to do so.

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Pete Canalichio

August 17, 2009